Earlier this month, the NWS announced that its weather models “more strongly favor an ENSO-neutral” winter weather pattern. During the spring and summer, the NWS was forecasting a possible “La Niña” weather pattern.
Typically, La Niña weather patterns produce less rainfall than normal. Since the excessive rain forecast for last winter’s El Niño never materialized, the neutral or normal weather possibility is a much better opportunity than a La Niña pattern.
Currently the neutral condition has a 55 to 60 percent probability to occur during the fall and winter of 2016-17.
“Overall the combined ocean and atmosphere system continues to reflect [a likelihood of] neutral,” the announcement said.