Despite a relatively wet fall, Cal Fire’s Predictive Services unit foresees significantly large fire threats into winter.
The report stressed that Southern California remains in drought conditions, which are unlikely to change this winter. Both Predictive Services and the National Weather Service consider the possibility of La Niña conditions to remain high.
NWS places the probability of La Niña conditions at 70 percent and is forecasting below-normal rainfall and above-average temperatures for Southern California through March.
“Across Southern California, although wetting rains have occurred a bit early this year, the increase in moisture will likely be offset by
the possibility of a greater than average
number of offshore wind events,” they then concluded. “This will keep large fire
potential above normal over much of
Southern California into early December.”
If so, below-average rainfall is the projection for winter — January and February are typically the wettest months — and early spring.
