{"id":40260,"date":"2015-09-09T16:22:42","date_gmt":"2015-09-09T23:22:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/idyllwildtowncrier.com\/?p=40260"},"modified":"2016-02-19T12:45:31","modified_gmt":"2016-02-19T19:45:31","slug":"overflow-crowd-seeks-el-nino-information","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/idyllwildtowncrier.com\/2015\/09\/09\/overflow-crowd-seeks-el-nino-information\/","title":{"rendered":"Overflow crowd seeks El Ni\u00f1o information"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"More
More than 125 people filled the Idyllwlld Library on Tuesday, Sept. 1. They attended the Mountain Disaster Preparedness group\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o and Hill event to learn more about the approaching weather condition and ways to prepare.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

About 150 people crowded the Idyllwild Library Community Room, lobby and doorways on Tuesday night, Sept. 1. All seats were taken and all walls were lined with people standing. They were not there for entertainment but for information.<\/p>\n

Mountain Disaster Preparedness convened the meeting, headlined by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/a> Meteorologist Alex Tardy, local Geologist Julian Geisinger and Certified Arborist Deborah Geisinger, to discuss the presumptive 2015-16 El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern and ways to prepare.<\/p>\n

Exit interviews and questions at the end of the meeting revealed the disparate reasons why so many people had come: \u201cWe wanted to hear the reality of it; how bad is it going to be?\u201d \u201cWhere can we get sandbags?\u201d \u201cHow great is the erosion and flooding danger?\u201d \u201cWhat about soil saturation, large tree root weakening and the likelihood of large trees falling?\u201d \u201cWhat are the remedial steps that can be taken now to prevent major damage to property?\u201d \u201cWill Idyllwild be cut off because of road closures (major mud and rock slides)?\u201d<\/p>\n

Larry Kueneman summed it up this way, \u201cAs many people as are here, there are that many different reasons for coming.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Alex
Alex Tardy, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in San Diego, spoke to a large group of Idyllwild residents about the approaching El Ni\u00f1o event this fall and winter Tuesday night, Sept. 1, at the Idyllwild Library. Photos by JP Crumrine<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Tardy, who spoke without notes, did not disappoint. Fluent, engaging and frequently entertaining, he gave the headline people either had wanted or feared to hear: Present indicators show that this El Ni\u00f1o could be very strong, perhaps historic, and that \u201cit will come directly at us.\u201d Tardy explained that it looked as if the moisture-bearing jet stream would directly cross over Southern California and the Riverside County mountains, specifically. \u201cThe expectations are that the jet stream will be so far south that it will cross right over us,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Tardy explained the likelihood that Southern California will experience many more storms, not necessarily larger or more severe storms. \u201cThere is a really good correlation that indicates we will have a lot of storms with little or no time to recover [between storms.]\u201d<\/p>\n

That poses, as he explained, dangers from over-saturation of the soil, greater runoff and erosion, and weakening of tree root structure.<\/p>\n

\u201cExtreme weather is also a wild card that makes it hard to predict,\u201d he said, noting that with this approaching El Ni\u00f1o, there are indicators that have not previously been seen at tracking levels. \u201cThere is a little unknown about what is developing,\u201d he said. \u201cWhen the oceans start to warm [at levels that are being recorded] it\u2019s an indication that the atmosphere is too hot.\u201d<\/p>\n

He noted that deep ocean temperatures are currently unusually warm, portending an extended El Ni\u00f1o season \u2014 one that could begin in early fall and last into late spring, with the most severe precipitation continuing into late spring. Indications are that this approaching El Ni\u00f1o could rival the three greatest previous ones \u2014 in 1972-73, 1982-83 and 1997-98.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re going to be seeing a lot of precipitation in Southern California even while the drought persists,\u201d said Tardy. \u201cTo make up for the two seasons of moisture we have lost we\u2019d have to average 67 inches of precipitation this winter. The chances of that are zero. The bottom line is that we have dug ourselves into a prolonged precipitation deficit.\u201d<\/p>\n

The coming rainy season is, he explained, shaping up to possess a potentially catastrophic confluence of circumstances: dry compacted soil, major runoff and erosion, loosened boulders blocking roads and damaging structures, flooding potential, weakened tree root structure, falling trees and Santa Ana winds.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe bottom line,\u201d said Tardy, \u201cis getting educated and making wise choices.\u201d<\/p>\n

Both the Geisingers talked about measures to be taken now to prepare: sculpt and contour grade land to \u201cshape\u201d and guide water runoff; increase ground cover and mulch; capture water runoff on site and have \u201cmulti-phase\u201d backup measures for capture devices and systems that overflow; and drill holes into compacted soil driveways to allow water to permeate. \u201cAll these features require maintenance at least seasonally,\u201d said Julian. \u201cYou must dig silt out of swales and containment berms. Hire a professional who knows about landscaping and water harvesting.\u201d<\/p>\n

Deborah warned of weakened tree roots. \u201cLook at where a tree is leaning as well as gopher activity,\u201d she said. \u201cAlso thin out smaller trees so the larger ones can survive. Drill holes in the ground to capture water and keep it as much as you can on the site.\u201d<\/p>\n

MDP President Mike Feyder said that his organization would be posting weather warnings on its site at www.idyllwildemergency.com. He also suggested a future meeting to discuss in more detail ways to prepare for the coming El Ni\u00f1o and how to prevent potential damage for a protracted wet winter.<\/p>\n

Below is a video of the first half hour of the meeting:
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