Mother Nature discouraging spring wildfire opportunities

The outlook for a relatively lower-level wildfire season this year is
very positive. Cooler temperatures and more precipitation are
responsible for the reduced chance of major fires this spring.

The National Interagency Fire Center’s Predictive Services unit
projects, “The potential for significant fires will be near normal
across the entire region through April. The lower elevations will likely
see a below normal threat for significant fire in May, then most of the
region will likely see a below normal threat for significant fire in
June.”

Precipitation this winter has significantly raised the moisture level of
dry and dead fuels throughout California, according to Cal Fire’s
Southern Operations Unit. Live fuel moisture also has begun to rise. At
the lower elevations, grass will begin to sprout soon and continue into
June.

“Expect curing of fine fuels over the lower elevations to start in April
and be almost entirely cured by the beginning of May. However, expect
greenness in the brush into at least early summer,” South Ops said in
its Feb. 29 report.

The region has no drought conditions, either.

While Northern California and the coastal areas in the south have been
inundated with rainfall, and now snowfall, precipitation on the Hill has
not been as great as the winter of 2023. But it approaches neither
dryness nor drought conditions.

As of Saturday, precipitation since Jan. 1 has been about 12 inches,
which is close to half of the historical average for 12 months.

In early February, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction
Center (CPC) reported that the current El Niño conditions are weakening.
While they may persist through April, a neutral period is expected to be
present in May and June. By summer, there is a 55% chance that La Niña
conditions will arrive.

This transition will continue to bring damp, if not wet, weather to
Southern California through spring, thus continuing to reduce the
chances of any large wildfire activity. Currently, the CPC forecasts
about equal chances that precipitation will be either above or below
normal for Southern California through the end of summer.

South Ops concluded with the following summary, “Precipitation will
likely be above normal through June and temperatures and Santa Ana wind
events will likely be below normal through June.”