The summer 2023 fire season has been minimal and predictions for the remainder of the summer and early fall continue to be for below-normal fire activity.

This is true for much of the country. Fire activity has been below normal. The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) Predictive Services Outlook for July reported “… year-to-date fire activity in both number of fires and acres burned remaining well below normal … Year-to-date acres burned for the U.S. is 36% of the 10-year average, with a below average number of fires, about 88% of average.”

The National Weather Service’s (NWS) reported rain for various stations on the Hill all exceed the average rainfall for a rain year, which is October through September.

The rest of the summer is expected to continue to be normal activity, according to the report. “… in July with below normal potential in the Sierra, San Bernardino Mountains, and northwest California mountains. Below normal potential will continue in the southern Sierra and San Bernadino Mountains into September.”

Besides the very wet winter, spring has helped with limiting fire conditions. June temperatures averaged below normal while precipitation has continued to be above average for this time of the year.

One demonstrable fact of the cooler spring is the snowpack. The NIFC Outlook reported, “The high elevations Sierra snowpack remains in many areas, and [it] is between 20% and 30% of the April 1 normal which is when the snowpack is normally at its deepest. It is very unusual to have a measurable snowpack left by July.”

California’s Department of Water Resources estimates that the snowpack, while 9% of the April average, is still 300 to 400% greater than normal for the end of June.

Locally, the low temperature on Friday, June 23, was 34 degrees, the lowest on that date since 1966. And on June 12, the 57-degree high was the lowest since 1943 when the NWS began recording temperatures on the Hill.

Other indicators of potentially low expected fire activity also are all positive. “The live fuel moisture remains mainly between 80% and 150% and is well above normal for this time of year.” And the moisture content of dead fuels remains above average for this time of year.

As the El Niño conditions strengthen, summer temperatures will warm considerably, and monsoonal weather and thunderstorms are more likely in August and September.

However, the El Niño also is expected to bring more rain this fall and, possibly, next winter. The NWS forecast for the November, December and January period is that precipitation is likely to be 30 to 40% above normal.

The Cal Fire Southern Operations Predictive Services unit summary of fire potential is: “Still expecting below normal large fire activity across the higher elevations and near to a little below normal large fire activity across the lower elevations through September. Moderate to strong El Niño conditions will likely cause significant rainfall to occur early in the fall. The large fire threat will be near to a little below normal across the region in October, but as time gets closer, may need to put in a below normal large fire threat across the lower elevations.”