It’s winter and precipitation has arrived, drenching, slippery and returning. While it is mostly still rain with some snow, much more is expected through next week and perhaps longer. While Northern California has received the brunt of the early storms, Southern California has seen local flooding.

Accuweather meteorologists say the onslaught is far from over. One storm in the bunch was poised to aim a firehose of moisture at the Golden State early in the new week, potentially leading to “catastrophic” flooding, in addition to widespread mudslides and road closures, forecasters say.

“The impacts from this storm cannot be understated,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Joe Bauer said.

At a Sunday news conference, Nancy Ward, new director of California’s Office of Emergency Services, said more than 400,000 residents are without power. She added, “Floods kill more individuals than any other natural disasters. We’ve already had more deaths in this flood storm since Dec. 31 than we had in the last two fire seasons of the highest acreage burned in California.”

On Wednesday, Jan. 5, Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a statewide emergency to respond to damage already incurred and to this unceasing precipitation pattern, which could cause more extensive damage throughout the state.

President Joe Biden declared a state of emergency for California Monday at Newsom’s request, clearing the way for assistance from the Federal Emergency Management Agency for the storms that have killed 12 people in 10 days.

Northern California has suffered from more than a week of pounding rain and snow in the mountains, resulting in a well-above-average snowpack currently. Southern California’s sunny days have frequently been cloudy, dreary and wet — just not so severe.

The rainfall on the Hill has replicated the pattern statewide — more in the northern areas and less moving south. In the 48 hours from Wednesday morning, Jan. 4, through Friday morning, Jan. 6, Vista Grande recorded nearly 3.9 inches of rain. Near Stone Creek, the National Weather Service (NWS) recorded 1.3 inches of rain. Pine Cove received barely an inch, and at Keenwild Ranger Station, only 0.44 inches of rain fell.

While that was a lot of rain, it was simply a follow through from earlier storms. In the previous five days, more than 2 inches were recorded at Keenwild Ranger Station and nearly 3.5 inches at Stone Creek. Areas in Pine Cove recorded between 1.5 and 1.7 inches of rain.

The Idyllwild Fire Station recorded nearly 5.3 inches of total precipitation from new year’s eve through the morning of Jan. 7. That compares to no rain in the whole month of January 2022.

While that is a lot of rain in a week, it does not quite compare to the two days — Feb. 13 and 14, 2019 — when nearly 7 inches of rain pummeled the Hill, resulting in months of highway closures.

Since Oct. 1, 2022, the beginning of the rain year, Idyllwild Fire has recorded 9.8 inches of rain.

Meteorologist Alex Tardy, of the NWS San Diego Office, is forecasting, at least, 3 more storms after the mild one over that passed this weekend. The next may arrive on Wednesday and stay through Friday. This storm carries the potential to bring more significant rainfall farther south. NWS is currently predicting 2 to 2.5 inches of rain on the Hill and it could move into San Diego County. And it may be a colder storm, which explains the estimate of more than a foot of snow on Mount San Jacinto Peak. Then another storm is expected Jan. 13 or 14.

“Potentially more signs of storms through the middle of January,” he said.

Tardy attributes this parade of storms to a massive jet stream cruising across the Pacific Ocean.

“Multiple atmospheric rivers will hit the West Coast. One after another into next week and likely beyond,” said forecaster Heather Tesch of the Weather Channel. “One system after another with very small breaks.

An atmospheric river (www.weather.gov/media/ajk/brochures/Alaska%20Atmospheric%20River.pdf) is a strip of deep tropical moisture capable of transporting huge amounts of water vapor from the tropics and causing extreme rainfall, high winds and flooding.

“The mountains could receive around 1 to 3 inches of rainfall with localized higher amounts. … Snow levels will start out high … around 8,000 feet on Monday. Colder air will filter in early Tuesday which will allow for snow levels to fall to around 5,500-6,000 feet as precipitation winds down. Significant snowfall above 7,000 feet remains possible,” NWS tweeted.

NWS expects this pattern to continue throughout the next two weeks “as several more impactful atmospheric river events are expected.”

Aside from another brief break in the action in the middle of the week, NWS is forecasting the active and stormy pattern shows no notable signs of weakening through next week. Another powerful Pacific storm may appear Thursday night into Friday. This one may bring heavier precipitation and lower snow levels leading to heavier snow amounts.

While this precipitation is improving current drought conditions, one cannot assume that the drought is over or even ending. The long-term drought, dating back to the 2019-2020 winter, continues across California.

“I do not know if the rain we are getting is going to take us out of the drought. I do know it can only help the ‘live’ fuel moisture content,” wrote Riverside County Fire Chief Bill Weiser. “If we can continue this pattern our fire season will be delayed but … we will have a robust grass crop that will [affect] our fires in the summer.”

The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) measured 55 inches of snow depth at one of its stations. This is equivalent of 17.5 inches of water and, according to the DWR, 177% of average for this location. Statewide the snowpack is 174% of average for this date.

Nevertheless, DWR noted, “Conditions so far this season have proven to be strikingly similar to last year when California saw some early rainstorms and strong December snow totals only to have the driest January through March on record.”

“Big snow totals are always welcome, but we still have a long way to go before the critical April 1 total,” said DWR’s Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Unit Manager Sean de Guzman. “It’s always great to be above average this early in the season, but we must be resilient and remember what happened last year. If January through March of 2023 turn out to be similar to last year, we would still end the water year in severe drought with only half of an average year’s snowpack.”

NWS said there is a 70% likelihood that the La Niña pattern will continue through February. By late winter and spring, weather patterns are more likely to be neutral rather than favoring either an El Niño or La Niña.

As Idyllwild Fire Chief Mark LaMont said, “Rain is a double-edged sword. We desperately need it, though it tends to bring up a light flashy grass crop which carry fire [in spring and early summer].”