The April and spring to summer wildfire outlooks have been issued. The current dry spell raises the chances of possible wildfire in the Southern California mountains, according to all of the fire services.

“There is also an increased risk in timber dominated fires across much of the mountainous areas during the summer months of 2025 due to a lack of rainfall over the long-term period (since October 1st 2024),” according to Cal Fire’s Southern Operations Predictive Services.

A similar forecast was issued by the North American Seasonal Fire Assessment and Outlook, “Above normal [wildfire] potential is forecast across most of the Southwest, as well as the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern California and the southern Sierra.”

Much of Riverside County, and all of Imperial County, are in extreme drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor (//droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx).

The Hill has received less than half the normal rainfall between January 1 and the end of March. Since the beginning of the rain year (October 1), rainfall is barely one-third of the long-term average.

Idyllwild fire has recorded only 6.8 inches of rain since the beginning of 2025, but that is only 0.05 inches more than since Oct. 1. Keenwild and Pine Cove rain amounts are similar.

Last week, Alex Tardy, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, in the San Diego NWS office, described the winter as “. . . still missing several rounds of rain.”

NWS was forecasting two storms last week, that would bring several inches of snow. Unfortunately, that event failed to appear.

The Statewide precipitation has been consistent with recent years as seen the measurement of the mountain areas snowpack. Overall, at the end of March, the snowpack was about “. . . 90 percent of average,” according to the State’s Department of Water Resources.

However, that is not true for the Southern Mountains, “While the snowpack has caught up to near normal, broad swaths of Southern California remain exceptionally dry and below average for rainfall. This includes the Los Angeles region, which as of today has only received 45 percent of its average rainfall so far this water year,” DWR said in its press release.

On April 4, Tardy forecast a very warm April, with the chance of a couple of heat waves. Possibly, 10-15 degrees higher than normal, he said, with heat risks possible at lower elevations. The desert cities could be 100 degrees.

Sunday the NWS weekly forecast said, “Inland highs will be 10 to locally 20 degrees above normal Wednesday through Friday.”

For June, the South Ops Outlook believes the chances of a normal large wildfire potential are slightly higher now. As the temperatures increase in July, the forecast is for a “above normal large fire potential.”