The latest atmospheric river has finally offered some precipitation to the Hill communities.
The fall and early winter drought is being slightly relieved. Last week, through Friday at noon the National Weather Service reported 4.1 inches of rain fell in Idyllwild from Wednesday through Friday. The Keenwild Ranger Station recorded 4.06 inches of rain during the same period.
More precipitation is not expected in the short-term. On Feb. 16, the National Weather Service forecast was “Dry weather is expected through next week. . .. it`s just a matter of whether temperatures will be slightly below or slightly above normal and how much (if any) marine layer low cloud coverage there will be.”
“Well, it has finally rained in Southern California this winter. But nearly the entire region remains woefully behind average. And the much-discussed north-south precipitation dipole has persisted all the way through mid-February,” Dr. Daniel Swain, meteorologist and climate scientist at the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability at the University of California, Los Angeles, wrote on Weather West, his website, Wednesday, Feb.12, “This dipole will probably continue, in some form, for the rest of the season–but [this] heavy precipitation event preferentially focused on the southern half of the state will mitigate it somewhat and probably bring all areas in SoCal out of ‘record dry’ territory,” Swain concluded.
From July through December 2024, only .39 inches of rain was reported at the Idyllwild Fire Station. The long-term average for the last six months of the year is 9.3 inches.
While the state drought map changed little from the Feb. 4 to Feb. 11 data, the Feb. 18 map should show a significant decline in drought areas, particularly along the Southern California coast and mountains were indicted in a severe drought state as of Feb. 11.
Last week, the Department of Water Resources reported that the Southern California snowpack, as Feb. 13, was about 57% of the normal amount for mid-February and 41% of April 1 amount, an increase from the Feb. 1 estimate of 31%.
Looking beyond winter does not offer extremely promising events. On Feb. 13, the NWS Climate Prediction Center issued its forecast of a weak La Niña through February-April, but there is also a 41% chance of ENSO-neutral emerging in this season.
A weak La Niña is less likely to result in conventional winter/spring impacts. La Niña conditions are expected to persist in the near-term, with a 66% chance to transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March to May 2025.
