Calvert and Rollins in close election and fund raising
All of the Hill communities reside within the 41^(st) U.S. Congressional
District. Republican Ken Calvert, who represents CD 41, is serving his
16^(th) Congressional term.
In November 2022, he defeated Democratic rookie Will Rollins in one of
Calvert’s closest races, in which he captured just 52.4% of the votes.
Both men will face off again in November. And once more this will be a
close if not closer race. This closeness raises the importance of this
race which will have strong bearing on which party controls the House of
Representatives in 2025.
In 2022, Calvert outpolled Rollins by 11,100 votes out of 236,600 of
ballots cast. His margin of victory was less than 5%. As of May 13, the
Riverside County Registrar of Voters’ Office reports 472,336 registered
voters in CD 41. With 174,519, Republicans have the largest number of
registered voters. But that is only 2,650 more than registered
Democrats.
And as of this week, the number of Congressional Republicans is 217.
There are 213 Democratic representatives and five vacant seats. The
November Election will determine control of the House in 2025, which is
why the outcome of CD 41 is important to its voters and will influence
the entire country.
Current elections require considerable financing for TV and other media
advertising. Campaign funds are critical components of today’s
elections.
As of March 31, Rollins had the lead in cash over Calvert. At the end of
the primary month, Rollins had $3.2 million in cash, while Calvert held
$2.6 million.
Calvert had no primary opponent, but Anna Nevenic was on the Democratic
ballot for the Congressional seat. This is one reason Rollins outpaced
Calvert in collecting campaign contributions. Through March 31, Rollins
received $4.3 million compared to Calvert’s take of $3.8 million.
There is a significant difference in the source of these contributions.
Rollins garnered nearly $4 million, more than 90%, from individuals. The
remainder was from his political action committee, Rollins Victory Fund,
and the Democratic Party’s California House Majority Fund.
About two-thirds of Calvert’s contributions came from individuals, the
balance from party committees.
His largest contributor is a Political Action Committee, “Protect the
House 2024,” which former Speaker Kevin McCarthy established in February
2023, on the heels of the narrow 2022 Republican House victory.
Through last week, about seven Idyllwild residents have contributed
about $3,000 to Rollins campaign. The Calvert data does not show any
Idyllwild or other contributions from Hill areas.
The competitiveness of this race is not just seen in the registration
numbers. Political observers have also identified its importance and
closeness. This month, the Cook Political Report called this race a
toss-up, “These races are the most competitive; either party has a good
chance of winning.”
Another political observer, “inside Elections” has shifted this race
from “Lean Republican” to “Tilt Republican.” This was attributed to
Rollins’ ability to raise cash for the election. However, the Center for
Politics rates this race as “Lean Republican.”
On April 26, Julia Wick of the Los Angeles Times wrote this about CD 41.
“Calvert — who has represented parts of the Inland Empire for more than
three decades — narrowly staved off Rollins last cycle in a race that
was far more competitive than expected. This time, Rollins will be aided
by the full backing of the Democratic Party and far more fundraising
support. . . The majority of the district remains on Calvert’s home turf
of the Inland Empire, but the desert additions now give it one of the
largest concentrations of LGBTQ+ voters in the nation.”
Both candidates have already begun campaigning. For example, last week,
Calvert accused Rollins of not supporting reform of Proposition 47,
which reduced certain nonserious and nonviolent property and drug
offenses from felonies to misdemeanors. Earlier in the week, the Palm
Springs Police Officers’ Association formally endorsed Rollins.
