Despite the rainstorms in November and December, 2015 appears to be becoming the fourth-consecutive drought year. However, the National Weather Service is still forecasting above-average rainfall for Southern California between February and April.

Through the end of January, rainfall on the Hill is substantially below the long-term average rain through January of 14.2 inches. The Idyllwild Fire Station has reported 11.86 inches through January; the Forest Service’s Keenwild Ranger Station has received only 6.7 inches and George Tate of Pine Cove reports 12.7 inches. All of these data points are below the average, which includes 5 inches just in January.

At the end of January, the state’s Department of Water Resources reported the snowpack was only 25 percent of its historical average. An exceedingly dry January resulted in the water equivalent dropping 50 percent.

“The absence of precipitation in January, normally California’s wettest month, has combined with warmer-than-average temperatures to produce a dismally meager snowpack for a drought-stricken state,” according to DWR. “… manual snow survey makes it likely that California’s drought will run through a fourth-consecutive year.”

Cal Fire’s Predictive Services unit was more direct in its description of the past month’s weather. “… little meaningful precipitation to important water sheds across the state.”

January was unusually dry this year. According to NWS, it was the fifth-driest January in Big Bear, Riverside and Palm Springs since keeping records began in the mid-1800s.

Although Northern California experienced major rainstorms last weekend, January was a record. For the first time, no rain was recorded in San Francisco during the month.

“Most long-term precipitation guidance continues to be bullish with regards to precipitation the rest of this winter in early spring,” Cal Fire stated. “Take most of the models at face value, it would seem a return to wetter weather conditions is likely before too long.”

However on Thursday, Feb. 5, NWS lowered the probability of an El Niño pattern forming this spring to 50 to 60 percent. As spring arrives, the major indicators for its development weaken, according to weather officials.

But some rain will do little to diminish the threat of fires this year. In 2014, the third year of the drought, the U.S. Forest Service acknowledged that its fire season was primarily concentrated on the West Coast.

This warning from the Predictive Services Unit has already been issued: “In the absence of wind, there may be enough moisture in the live fuels in brush and shrub to keep rates of spread manageable this spring, but by the beginning of June, large-fire potential may begin to climb back to above normal. The areas with higher-than-normal potential in June may be inland areas above and away from the marine layer.”

At its final meeting Friday, Feb. 6, the Parks Forward Commission will review its final report and recommendations for the future management of the state park system.

Collectively, the numerous recommendations will result in a fundamental transformation of the California Department of Parks and Recreation. The commission recognizes that change requires planning and needs time; consequently, it proposes the creation of a team within the agency to analyze and guide implementing various other recommendations.

The department has already begun to implement this step. On Jan. 22, Lisa Mangat, acting director, California State Parks, announced the formation of a 14-member Transformation Team.

“The job of the Transformation Team is bold and ambitious, and I am confident we have put the right people in place to lead this charge,” Mangat said in the press release. “The Parks Forward report is the beginning of the conversation. We have a responsibility to ensure positive and meaningful changes happen that will have a lasting impact for the visitors, supporters and staff of California State Parks.”

The principal impetus for the Parks Forward initiative was a 2012 budgetary problem that led to the department’s tentative proposal to close 70 units. Later that summer, it was disclosed that the department had $54 million of hidden assets. A year later in 2013, the commission was created to evaluate the department and recommend changes to improve its future viability.

“We recognize that change at this level is not the easiest path forward — that it may be easier and generate broader support to simply call for more funding and propose modest incremental change … Our treasured parks, the people of California and dedicated park staff deserve better,” the commission declared.

The numerous commission recommendations seem practical (such as eliminating the maintenance backlog and funding future maintenance), ambitious (such as ensuring “Every urban Californian lives within a safe, half-mile walk of a well-maintained park …”) and pragmatic (such as working more collaboratively with public and private partners).

A critical recommendation is the establishment of “Park California,” which would be a nonprofit public benefit corporation to support the state agency. One of its goals is to promote and to expand access and visitation to a wider range of state residents.

“Expanding park visitation requires a focused effort to ensure park facilities, amenities and programming serve the needs of a broader base of park visitors,” is one of the future goals.

Regardless of how outside funding is found for future parks, the commission recognized their public purpose and the continuing need for stable public funds. “Effective revenue models exist throughout the park system, and the best of these should be identified and taken to statewide scale, where appropriate,” the report states. “However, even with these effectiveness and revenue-generation improvements, General Fund reductions and deferred maintenance have compromised the state’s ability to manage and sustain the State Park System. Existing funding no longer guarantees the promise of the park vision to future generations.”

The Parks Forward Commission meeting is from 9:30 a.m. to noon Friday, Feb. 6, in Sacramento. They will also hear a presentation from Stamen Design, co-creators of the “CaliParks” mobile app, California’s first statewide park finder application.